There is a statistical concept known as the return to mean. It is a little counter-intuitive, in that it says that when you have two tall parents, you should expect a shorter kid, not a taller one (and vice versa). In other words, when you’re at the extremes of a given distribution, you’re more likely to return to the average than drift further out. I sometimes find myself wondering about this in the context of the great game of league.
Are the Titans/Dragons/Dogs really that good? Or will they regress a little during the playoffs? Are the Eels really in comp-winning form or will they return to a slightly less stellar mean, as the pathetic Tigers recently have? Are the Broncos as bad as their mini-train wreck a few rounds back suggested, or are they more like a top 5 team? Are the Sharks and Roosters really that bad? Yes, they really are.
Even statistics have their limit.
Underneath all the noise of attitudinal corrections and injury crises, kind draws and away ground hoodoos, can we discern an underlying trend in a team’s performance? And what’s the proper time period to understand a team’s form? 10 weeks? One season? Several seasons? Who could be the judge of a team’s ‘true’ trajectory anyway? And is that what coaches really get paid for? To change their team’s mean and understand the other team’s? Of all these deep thoughts, one spoke loudest in my mind: why spend time working it out myself when I can hire a consultancy to do a worse job for more money?
Ike Arnby Levitzer Consultancy’s report has just landed on my desk, complete with a summary of the key findings. (Tell me this, why should a study have ‘key’ findings? Can’t they all be key? Why should there be something that ‘it all boils down to’? Maybe when you boil it down it just burns and gets stuck to the pan, isn’t that possible? As humans, we love seeking the ‘essence’ of things, but sometimes, as when I was trying to bake a vanilla cake on the weekend, there just is no essence.)
Key findings, based on where team sits on ladder (ie not based on any recent winning/losing streak): Teams performing above their mean include the Dogs, StGeorge (just), Penrith and the Knights. Teams performing below their mean are Sea Eagles and Warriors. Titans, Storm, Broncos, Eels, Tigers, Cowboys, Souths and Raiders are all sitting about spot on their mean. I couldn’t get a read on the Sharks or Roosters, the consultancy wanted extra money to sit through their games.
What do I make of their analysis? What does it tell us about the semi-finals? Or season 2010? Unfortunately I ran out of money to pay a consultancy to answer those questions, so if you have any idea please drop us a comment.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Year in Review - Part V of XVI
We’re getting awfully close to the teams that almost made it now. The Bunnies have followed a slightly unorthodox path this year - starting well, fading badly, coming back strongly, bombing out at last, then coming back again even though it is too late. A metaphor for life, perhaps?
South Sydney Rabbitohs or No Wing, No Prayer
Highlight: I was going to say their absolute pummeling of Manly at Brookvale a couple of weeks back, but that was until they played TAFKAPF (the athletes formerly known as premiership favourites) on Saturday night. Some say the story is more about the Dragons than the Bunnies, but I don’t buy that for a second. Beating the top team 41-6 says this team has heart.
Lowlight: For a team that has heart, the Rabbitohs lack a lot of other important internal-organ related qualities, including brains, intestinal fortitude and a ventable spleen. Their captain has to be the first in the history of rugby league to talk neither to his players, nor the ref, nor the media. We love you
Most Valuable Player: Roy Asotasi, who said he hoped to help turn the Rabbitohs around by joining them. They’ve been turned around more times than a blindfolded kid at a party and have similar odds of success. Yes, they’re back in the league. Yes, they’re nowhere near the bottom. Yes, they’re almost able to remove the 14 day cooling off period clause from all new player signings. But they’re still a long, long way from being a legit contender. If they had a team full of Roy Asotasis, the story would be very different. It would also involve flagrant breaches of human cloning regulations, plus they wouldn’t have been able to field anyone for their last three games. I would so read that story.
Most Worthless Player: League’s sexiest man, Craig Wing. It’s kind of bad when your marquee signing can’t crack the starting 13 even when he’s healthy. Worst homecoming since Carrie.
Telling Statistic: Four wins from eleven home games. For the team with the most goodwill in the NRL (and possible the history of sporting teams), that is one lame home ground advantage. Play the crowd a few clips from Gladiator, that’d fire them up.
Quote that sums up their year: “We are treating it as a grand final.” Colin Best before they got smashed by Penrith last week, giving some insight into how Souths will do if they ever make a grand final.
2010 Outlook: Russell Crowe has made it absolutely clear, Jason Taylor is going nowhere. I don’t know why this keeps getting reported as Russell being in support of JT, I actually think it was a Nostradamus-like forecast. Eighth place at best.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Year in Review - Part IV of XVI
The task has come to me to write about the Green Machine - the Canberra Raiders. However, seeing as I know nothing of the current team and, due to the fact that by giving Carney the boot they haven't left me anything to write on, I'm going to wind the clock back 15 years to the glory days.
1994: Year of the Tool
Highlight: Almost too many highlights to mention... Fairytale finishes to the careers of Big Mal and Paul Osborne. Tim Sheens winning his 3rd grandfinal in 6 years. Noa Nadruku at his best, back before he started beating up women.
Lowlight: Tooley Daley's lack of passion in the changeroom after the game. He was at his explosive best in the post-match celebrations in 1989 but sadly this year he kept it in his pants. On a side note, there are strange things happening with the Tooley statues in Canberra. See this link for more info.
Most Valuable Player: Brett Mullins. This kid is going to do big things in the future... League Blog predicts he will score over 100 tries, and will go out with a fairytale finish of his own. Marty Bella gets an honorouble mention, because without his dropped catch on the opening kickoff of the Grand Final the game might have followed a different, albeit probably more satisfying, path.
Most Worthless Player: Brett Hetherington. Only guy in the team who doesn't have his own page on Wikipedia.
Telling statistic: The signs were there at the end of the regular season - Despite coming in at 3rd on the Premiership ladder, Canberra had the best attack (677 points), and 2nd best defence (conceding 298 points), to have the massive points differential of +379 points for the season, a feat that has only since been bettered by Parramatta in 2001.
Quotes that sum up their year:-
"Simply the Best" - Tina Turner made a successful return to League in 1994...
"Ricky Stuart and Laurie Daley are two of the most respected figures in the game, and I don't see that changing". Mal misreads the Trusty Steeden.
1995 Outlook: I predict 20 years pain in the future for Canberra. Followed by 20 more.
1994: Year of the Tool
Highlight: Almost too many highlights to mention... Fairytale finishes to the careers of Big Mal and Paul Osborne. Tim Sheens winning his 3rd grandfinal in 6 years. Noa Nadruku at his best, back before he started beating up women.
Lowlight: Tooley Daley's lack of passion in the changeroom after the game. He was at his explosive best in the post-match celebrations in 1989 but sadly this year he kept it in his pants. On a side note, there are strange things happening with the Tooley statues in Canberra. See this link for more info.
Most Valuable Player: Brett Mullins. This kid is going to do big things in the future... League Blog predicts he will score over 100 tries, and will go out with a fairytale finish of his own. Marty Bella gets an honorouble mention, because without his dropped catch on the opening kickoff of the Grand Final the game might have followed a different, albeit probably more satisfying, path.
Most Worthless Player: Brett Hetherington. Only guy in the team who doesn't have his own page on Wikipedia.
Telling statistic: The signs were there at the end of the regular season - Despite coming in at 3rd on the Premiership ladder, Canberra had the best attack (677 points), and 2nd best defence (conceding 298 points), to have the massive points differential of +379 points for the season, a feat that has only since been bettered by Parramatta in 2001.
Quotes that sum up their year:-
"Simply the Best" - Tina Turner made a successful return to League in 1994...
"Ricky Stuart and Laurie Daley are two of the most respected figures in the game, and I don't see that changing". Mal misreads the Trusty Steeden.
1995 Outlook: I predict 20 years pain in the future for Canberra. Followed by 20 more.
One month of League Blog
Well, it's been just over a month since League Blog emerged blue and screaming from its league fan womb, and what a month it's been. Partly August and partly July, it's had a little bit of something for everyone. A quick run down of the high, highlights.
- A detailed look at State of Origin III
- A disturbing look at the death of Craig Wing and his likely successors as League's Sexiest Man (and by popular demand, part two)
- Some stunningly visionary assessments of team form
- G Man's promising I'll Take It From Here segment (and part two)
- A poignant perspective on the mutiny of Karmichael Hunt
- Our first meeting with the magic cubic zirconium ball, Trusty Steeden later to appear here and here
- A look at the disgusting love affair between certain dragons
- An explosive expose on the Morris Twins
- The first signs of Hammertime's statistical brilliance, soon to be seen again here
- Ivan Henjak lost in translation
- Things League can learn from Hockey, to be another regular feature here
- The much awaited semi-finals preview preview
- A meditation on the distance a league reputation can travel in short time
- The first installment of what we hope to be another regular segment, the Best Fan Writing
- Parts I, II and III of our sterling season review
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Love, damned love and statistics
If my readers know anything about me, it’s that I have a deep and abiding love of sports statistics. Like all good scientists, I pursue what to me seems interesting, and as soon as it get's difficult I give up.
So what do you get when you sum up the results of all current NRL teams since the comp's "inception" in 1998? Something like this:
I had to put the teams in some order, and after spending a few months trying to figure out how to put the Dogs first, I gave up and removed the total points docked column and ranked them first by number of grand final wins, then number of grand finals made, then number of semis made, then total winning percentage. Winning percentage shows the number of wins as a percent of all regular season games played, including this season up to last round.
I find it very revealing, the amount of rugby league history that can be crammed into a little table like this. What follows is a running commentary on things that jump out at me from this table.
Dang it, there's no way around it, the Broncos have been the best side over the last 11 years. The Storm might argue the point based on winning percentage or number of grand finals made, but you can't argue with number of titles. The Broncos' record in grand finals is pretty good too. I'd been sleeping much better at night since their mid-season form slump (once great, meet Broncos etc) but now they look like they're going to keep their amazing record of semifinal appearances in tact as well. If it's any consolation, we can all reminisce on the eight (soon to be nine) times Brisbane made the semis and utterly, humiliatingly bombed out. Moving right along...
I expected the Storm and Roosters (aka Sydney) to sit near the top, but with the laughable record of multiple grand final losses. Then I remembered the Storm's victory in 1999, which comfortably puts them in second. I was surprised to see they have the second most semis appearances, but not surprised that their winning percentage is the best. The Roosters are third largely due to their golden run from 2000-2004, which seems a distant memory now. I expect Brian Smith to take them back to the semis within three years, before taking over the rebuilding job at Cronulla after Lancen Juodo retires.
The glorious Dogs are next, edging out Manly based on number of semis made. Moving down to the bottom of this table, Gold Coast won't be there long, given their imminent semis appearance and far superior winning percentage to the Rabbitohs. And if they have a good September/October, they could shoot right up. Just look at the Tigers. I find it amazing that they've made the semis just once in 11 years (probably soon to be 12) but went all the way when they did.
Take a look at Canberra and Cronulla in comparison. Seven and six semis appearances, no grand finals. Canberra haven't even made a grand final qualifier. I might poor scorn on them, but I feel the real scorn should be reserved for Parramatta and StGeorge (based purely on first principles, but also on this table as I'll shortly explain). Eight times, they've strode confidently into the playoffs, eight times they've left empty handed. Only one grand final, which they each lost as favourites. Here's hoping it's not a StGeorge-Parra grand final this year.
Finally, the observant may notice that we're one semi final appearance short. Number 90 comes from none other than the Bears (RIP), back in 1998. They were reincarnated as Northern Eagles, but lucky for them and Manly their record isn't included in this table.
So what do you get when you sum up the results of all current NRL teams since the comp's "inception" in 1998? Something like this:
| Team | Titles | GFs | Semis | % |
| Brisbane | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0.595 |
| Melbourne | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0.616 |
| Sydney | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0.557 |
| Bulldogs | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0.581 |
| Manly | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.516 |
| Newcastle | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0.547 |
| Penrith | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.450 |
| Wests Tigers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.419 |
| Parramatta | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.554 |
| St. George Illawarra | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.533 |
| New Zealand | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.453 |
| North Queensland | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.384 |
| Canberra | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.488 |
| Cronulla | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.498 |
| South Sydney | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.291 |
| Gold Coast | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.493 |
| 11 | 22 | 89 |
I had to put the teams in some order, and after spending a few months trying to figure out how to put the Dogs first, I gave up and removed the total points docked column and ranked them first by number of grand final wins, then number of grand finals made, then number of semis made, then total winning percentage. Winning percentage shows the number of wins as a percent of all regular season games played, including this season up to last round.
I find it very revealing, the amount of rugby league history that can be crammed into a little table like this. What follows is a running commentary on things that jump out at me from this table.
Dang it, there's no way around it, the Broncos have been the best side over the last 11 years. The Storm might argue the point based on winning percentage or number of grand finals made, but you can't argue with number of titles. The Broncos' record in grand finals is pretty good too. I'd been sleeping much better at night since their mid-season form slump (once great, meet Broncos etc) but now they look like they're going to keep their amazing record of semifinal appearances in tact as well. If it's any consolation, we can all reminisce on the eight (soon to be nine) times Brisbane made the semis and utterly, humiliatingly bombed out. Moving right along...
I expected the Storm and Roosters (aka Sydney) to sit near the top, but with the laughable record of multiple grand final losses. Then I remembered the Storm's victory in 1999, which comfortably puts them in second. I was surprised to see they have the second most semis appearances, but not surprised that their winning percentage is the best. The Roosters are third largely due to their golden run from 2000-2004, which seems a distant memory now. I expect Brian Smith to take them back to the semis within three years, before taking over the rebuilding job at Cronulla after Lancen Juodo retires.
The glorious Dogs are next, edging out Manly based on number of semis made. Moving down to the bottom of this table, Gold Coast won't be there long, given their imminent semis appearance and far superior winning percentage to the Rabbitohs. And if they have a good September/October, they could shoot right up. Just look at the Tigers. I find it amazing that they've made the semis just once in 11 years (probably soon to be 12) but went all the way when they did.
Take a look at Canberra and Cronulla in comparison. Seven and six semis appearances, no grand finals. Canberra haven't even made a grand final qualifier. I might poor scorn on them, but I feel the real scorn should be reserved for Parramatta and StGeorge (based purely on first principles, but also on this table as I'll shortly explain). Eight times, they've strode confidently into the playoffs, eight times they've left empty handed. Only one grand final, which they each lost as favourites. Here's hoping it's not a StGeorge-Parra grand final this year.
Finally, the observant may notice that we're one semi final appearance short. Number 90 comes from none other than the Bears (RIP), back in 1998. They were reincarnated as Northern Eagles, but lucky for them and Manly their record isn't included in this table.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Year in Review - Part III of XVI
Screening at the NRL this weekend was an unusual doubleheader, Watership Down (dead rabbits) and Brokeback Mountain (dead cowboy). But enough of the pup tent, it's time to continue the review of the year that was. It's quite incredible that the bottom three teams this year all did pretty well last year. Don't you think?
New Zealand Warriors or Polys Want A Cracker
Highlight: Preseason ambition.
Lowlight: The death of Sonny Fai.
Most Valuable Player: Ruben Wiki, it would appear.
Most Worthless Player: Stacey Jones, in a canter. Jones started the year in vintage form, leading the team to wins over the Eels and Sea Eagles. But it took about two rounds to finish the bottle and the team's been hungover ever since, getting by on the fermented sweat of the Beast. I think there's a lesson here for everyone. Coming back to the NRL from retirement is not easy. Yes, I'm talking to you Tonie Carroll. Once was Lockyer's Angel, now he's not fit to polish Thaiday's ... umm... boots. Big Dell would appear to invalidate the hereby christened Stacey Jones Rule, but he sneaks in by the Shane Warne Enforced Layoff Corollary. This bodes well for Reni Maitua, if his care factor ever goes above zero.
Telling statistic: The Warriors lead the league with 37.1 tackle busts a game. There hasn't been a less successful conversion of busts into something substantial since Heather Graham. Thanks to my colleague ParraStatsFreak for supplying this one (though not the Heather Graham analogy).
Quotes that sum up their year:
- Ivan Cleary's harsh but fair "It's almost pointless talking about our dreams down the track."
- Steve Price's "I think Stacey should be considered as an Immortal." Yes, Jones' corpse has recently been seen shuffling about playing fields around the eastern seaboard but that's merely further evidence we need a better description for our best players than 'immortal'. Corridor of Fame?
2010 Outlook: Winning their first two games, Ivan Cleary signed to a two year extension, followed by one win from their next eight and eventual irrelevance. Hang on, that was this year? Damn you Trusty Steeden!
New Zealand Warriors or Polys Want A Cracker
Highlight: Preseason ambition.
Lowlight: The death of Sonny Fai.
Most Valuable Player: Ruben Wiki, it would appear.
Most Worthless Player: Stacey Jones, in a canter. Jones started the year in vintage form, leading the team to wins over the Eels and Sea Eagles. But it took about two rounds to finish the bottle and the team's been hungover ever since, getting by on the fermented sweat of the Beast. I think there's a lesson here for everyone. Coming back to the NRL from retirement is not easy. Yes, I'm talking to you Tonie Carroll. Once was Lockyer's Angel, now he's not fit to polish Thaiday's ... umm... boots. Big Dell would appear to invalidate the hereby christened Stacey Jones Rule, but he sneaks in by the Shane Warne Enforced Layoff Corollary. This bodes well for Reni Maitua, if his care factor ever goes above zero.
Telling statistic: The Warriors lead the league with 37.1 tackle busts a game. There hasn't been a less successful conversion of busts into something substantial since Heather Graham. Thanks to my colleague ParraStatsFreak for supplying this one (though not the Heather Graham analogy).
Quotes that sum up their year:
- Ivan Cleary's harsh but fair "It's almost pointless talking about our dreams down the track."
- Steve Price's "I think Stacey should be considered as an Immortal." Yes, Jones' corpse has recently been seen shuffling about playing fields around the eastern seaboard but that's merely further evidence we need a better description for our best players than 'immortal'. Corridor of Fame?
2010 Outlook: Winning their first two games, Ivan Cleary signed to a two year extension, followed by one win from their next eight and eventual irrelevance. Hang on, that was this year? Damn you Trusty Steeden!
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Year in Review – Part II of XVI
I have the honour of following up our end of season analysis of the Sharks by being able to focus on my most hated team, the Roosters. And before all you Manly supporters jump up in arms, don't worry, you're a close second.
Sydney Roosters: About to cut loose
Highlight: The names of the Roosters backline... A nightmare for those with a speech impediment, at one time there was: Sam Perrett, Sisa Waqa, Mitch Aubusson, Sia Soliola, Shaun Kenny-Dowell, Braith Anasta and Mitchell Pierce.
Lowlight: Brad Fittler. From his downfall as a winning-coach, to his bizarre experiments with positioning (Anasta at fullback?),to getting loaded and trying to get into a woman's hotel room resulting in police being called, to his self-imposed $10,000 fine, and his ultimate sacking by the club. It is an ignoble way for the best left foot step in the game to leave Rugby League. Luckily, there are limited coaches around, so look for Fittler to go to England, coach a team to a grand-final win, be called a Supercoach, and then return to coach Parramatta in 2013.
Most Valuable Player: Frank-Paul Nuuausala - Most unlikely combination of two names to make a first name; Most unlikely combination of first and last names; Most unlikely preponderance of the letter U in a last name. Also only one of 5 players to play all 21 games.
Most Worthless Player: It's like trying to determine the fattest kid at fat camp.
Telling statistics: Roosters have conceded the most points per game (28) and they've rewarded their loyal latte-drinking fans by scoring less than 2.5 tries per home game (worst in League). Without the Sharks they would have only had 3 wins in the season. In a positive note, their defence has actually improved since Round 1 when they conceded 52 against the Rabbitohs.
Quote that best sums up their year: Brad Fittler* “Well, it's been a tough season, but seeing how well the Bulldogs performed this year the Roosters are looking good for 2011".
2010 Outlook: Despite Smith bringing in the hose to get rid of the useless debris (seeya Ogre O'Meley), the Roosters are in for another couple of years of pain. Look for Junior Pearce to make a surprise comeback in 2010 to show his son some of his moves from 1989.
* Not the real Brad Fittler
Sydney Roosters: About to cut loose
Highlight: The names of the Roosters backline... A nightmare for those with a speech impediment, at one time there was: Sam Perrett, Sisa Waqa, Mitch Aubusson, Sia Soliola, Shaun Kenny-Dowell, Braith Anasta and Mitchell Pierce.
Lowlight: Brad Fittler. From his downfall as a winning-coach, to his bizarre experiments with positioning (Anasta at fullback?),to getting loaded and trying to get into a woman's hotel room resulting in police being called, to his self-imposed $10,000 fine, and his ultimate sacking by the club. It is an ignoble way for the best left foot step in the game to leave Rugby League. Luckily, there are limited coaches around, so look for Fittler to go to England, coach a team to a grand-final win, be called a Supercoach, and then return to coach Parramatta in 2013.
Most Valuable Player: Frank-Paul Nuuausala - Most unlikely combination of two names to make a first name; Most unlikely combination of first and last names; Most unlikely preponderance of the letter U in a last name. Also only one of 5 players to play all 21 games.
Most Worthless Player: It's like trying to determine the fattest kid at fat camp.
Telling statistics: Roosters have conceded the most points per game (28) and they've rewarded their loyal latte-drinking fans by scoring less than 2.5 tries per home game (worst in League). Without the Sharks they would have only had 3 wins in the season. In a positive note, their defence has actually improved since Round 1 when they conceded 52 against the Rabbitohs.
Quote that best sums up their year: Brad Fittler* “Well, it's been a tough season, but seeing how well the Bulldogs performed this year the Roosters are looking good for 2011".
2010 Outlook: Despite Smith bringing in the hose to get rid of the useless debris (seeya Ogre O'Meley), the Roosters are in for another couple of years of pain. Look for Junior Pearce to make a surprise comeback in 2010 to show his son some of his moves from 1989.
* Not the real Brad Fittler
Monday, August 17, 2009
Year in Review – Part I of XVI
It pains me to possibly distract attention from the previous two classy posts, but now that September is around the corner, unable to find the keys to its room, and all the best games are behind us, it’s appropriate for League Blog to turn its penetrating gaze to the season that was. We’ll start with the teams already out of contention.
Cronulla Sharks or The Year of Living Clenbuterolously
Highlight: An emotion-soaked victory over Parramatta to end a 9 game losing streak. This prompted an impressive four game winning streak appropriately ended by the Roosters.
Lowlight: The 9 game losing streak that preceded it and the current, soon to be extended, 7 game losing streak. Let us not speak of Off Field Incidents.
Most Valuable Player: Lancen Juodo, who NRL stats informs us was born in January 1901 and played one game for them this year. Assuming it was amidst their winning streak, this guy is a lucky charm.
Most Worthless Player: In perhaps the most fiercely contested battle fought by the Sharks this year, I can’t split Reni Maitua, Ben Ross, Brett “Three Strikes” Seymour or Brett Kearney.
Telling statistic: The Sharks concede 2.5 points more at home than away. Ladies and Gents, I give you home ground advantage!
Quote that best sums up their year: “From the start of the pre-season it's been horrendous”. Ricky Stuart was actually talking about Farmer Wants a Wife, but he might as well have been speaking of his Sharks.
2010 Outlook: Better than this year?
Cronulla Sharks or The Year of Living Clenbuterolously
Highlight: An emotion-soaked victory over Parramatta to end a 9 game losing streak. This prompted an impressive four game winning streak appropriately ended by the Roosters.
Lowlight: The 9 game losing streak that preceded it and the current, soon to be extended, 7 game losing streak. Let us not speak of Off Field Incidents.
Most Valuable Player: Lancen Juodo, who NRL stats informs us was born in January 1901 and played one game for them this year. Assuming it was amidst their winning streak, this guy is a lucky charm.
Most Worthless Player: In perhaps the most fiercely contested battle fought by the Sharks this year, I can’t split Reni Maitua, Ben Ross, Brett “Three Strikes” Seymour or Brett Kearney.
Telling statistic: The Sharks concede 2.5 points more at home than away. Ladies and Gents, I give you home ground advantage!
Quote that best sums up their year: “From the start of the pre-season it's been horrendous”. Ricky Stuart was actually talking about Farmer Wants a Wife, but he might as well have been speaking of his Sharks.
2010 Outlook: Better than this year?
The Best Fan Writing
In what I hope to be a regular installment, we'll be sharing some writing by regular league fans from time to time here at League Blog. Today's entry comes from Bob Dog over at the Kennel, which sets the bar for league forums (but not blogs).
Let the games begin
Its coming close to that time of year, where we are looking very favorable, St George have just lost and we have just won.
I think it may be a Parra vs Bulldogs G.F, but Canberra and Manly are looking good too.
I have had many personal insults leveled at me in a bid to upset me, my family and my club. These people have no right to use the Bulldogs club in this way.
The Dogs have a right to compete in this national competition fairly and have a fair shot at the GF, god help anyone who stands in their way
I think it may be a Parra vs Bulldogs G.F, but Canberra and Manly are looking good too.
I have had many personal insults leveled at me in a bid to upset me, my family and my club. These people have no right to use the Bulldogs club in this way.
The Dogs have a right to compete in this national competition fairly and have a fair shot at the GF, god help anyone who stands in their way
Building up, tearing down
It’s that time of year when players make names for themselves. Names crafted lovingly out of blood, sweat, tears and some of the greatest skills in the history of rugby league. The name on everyone’s lips and fingertips at the moment is Jarryd Hayne, and rightly so. Ever since he went and bit the heads off a school of fish with his Fijian counterparts at World Cup* training last year, he’s been on a form bender, tearing it up like nobody’s mixed business. He has definitively made a name for himself of late.
Other players already have names, but have reinforced their status as greats in one way or another. Darren Lockyer proved on the weekend that he is not a spent force, serving it up to perhaps the most potent defensive force in the history of rugby league, the Matt Elliot-coached Penrith Panthers. Jonathan Thurston outduelled Scotty Prince a few weeks back, proving indeed that he is the greatest player in rugby league today (indeed, look at the Cowboys since he joined them in 2005 – two semi final appearanaces including a grand final loss in 2005, a regular season win loss of 55/62, a playoff win/loss of 5 and 3. Other than the Storm, the Sea Eagles, the Broncos, Parramatta, the Roosters, the Bulldogs, the Titans and the Wests Tigers, who has a better record in this time?).
It got me thinking though, what about players ruining their reputation? What’s the fastest a name could break? I recently broke into Hazem El Masri’s house and read his dream diary. He has a recurring dream that runs like this…
“The Grand Final, full house, full time. My last ever game. The Doggies have just scored a miraculous, last minute, length of the field try to pull themselves within one point of the lead. The crowd is going ballistic. The team is celebrating like it’s 1999. The opponents are beaten, crushed. The try was scored under the sticks and all I have to do is slot it over for a famous, famous victory. I take nothing for granted, making my usual meticulous preparations. There is no wind, it is a fine evening. I take two steps backward, two steps to the side. I stare intently at the ball. The crowd continues their wild celebrations, as do my team mates, though I block it all out. I stride confidently in, and strike the ball. But something goes wrong. Terribly, terribly wrong. I slipped, or did I twitch? Was there something on the ground, a divot? I scratch the top of the ball, it dribbles along the ground and comes to rest under the goal posts. The touchies wave their flags in the telltale sign of an unsuccessful conversion. The crowd goes even more ballistic. My teammates are in shock. The opposition is in even more shock, and they start to celebrate. I wake up in a pool of sweat.”
Could a finer reputation fall further more quickly? Of course, this will never happen. I personally guarantee it, as does Allah.
*Not a real World Cup
Other players already have names, but have reinforced their status as greats in one way or another. Darren Lockyer proved on the weekend that he is not a spent force, serving it up to perhaps the most potent defensive force in the history of rugby league, the Matt Elliot-coached Penrith Panthers. Jonathan Thurston outduelled Scotty Prince a few weeks back, proving indeed that he is the greatest player in rugby league today (indeed, look at the Cowboys since he joined them in 2005 – two semi final appearanaces including a grand final loss in 2005, a regular season win loss of 55/62, a playoff win/loss of 5 and 3. Other than the Storm, the Sea Eagles, the Broncos, Parramatta, the Roosters, the Bulldogs, the Titans and the Wests Tigers, who has a better record in this time?).
It got me thinking though, what about players ruining their reputation? What’s the fastest a name could break? I recently broke into Hazem El Masri’s house and read his dream diary. He has a recurring dream that runs like this…
“The Grand Final, full house, full time. My last ever game. The Doggies have just scored a miraculous, last minute, length of the field try to pull themselves within one point of the lead. The crowd is going ballistic. The team is celebrating like it’s 1999. The opponents are beaten, crushed. The try was scored under the sticks and all I have to do is slot it over for a famous, famous victory. I take nothing for granted, making my usual meticulous preparations. There is no wind, it is a fine evening. I take two steps backward, two steps to the side. I stare intently at the ball. The crowd continues their wild celebrations, as do my team mates, though I block it all out. I stride confidently in, and strike the ball. But something goes wrong. Terribly, terribly wrong. I slipped, or did I twitch? Was there something on the ground, a divot? I scratch the top of the ball, it dribbles along the ground and comes to rest under the goal posts. The touchies wave their flags in the telltale sign of an unsuccessful conversion. The crowd goes even more ballistic. My teammates are in shock. The opposition is in even more shock, and they start to celebrate. I wake up in a pool of sweat.”
Could a finer reputation fall further more quickly? Of course, this will never happen. I personally guarantee it, as does Allah.
*Not a real World Cup
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Echidnas
An interesting article from the Manly Daily (13 Aug 09) was brought to my attention yesterday. "Beware, boys back in town: The National Parks and Wildlife Service is warning bushwalkers in Ku-ring-gai Chase National Park to be on the lookout for randy male echidnas following female echidnas through the bush... Staff at Ku-ring-gai Chase NP have witnessed several echidnas in recent weeks, including up to four males following one female in the hope of successfully mating with her... Sometimes as many as 11 male echidnas can be seen following a single female in the hope of mating with her, although three to four is more usual".
I'll take it from here Manly Daily.
"Matthew Johns could not be contacted for comment".
I'll take it from here Manly Daily.
"Matthew Johns could not be contacted for comment".
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Semi Finals Preview Preview
There'll be big hits, big calls, audacious predictions and formidable reputations put on the line. And that's just League Blog's semi finals preview I'm talking about. Some time in the next few days, or possibly months, we'll be delivering our verdict on the semi finals.
Who's going to win it all?
Who's going to win just a little bit of it?
Who's going to lose once?
Who will be strong enough to lose twice, a la the Roosters last year and the Dogs in 2007?
Which team will be the dark horse, and who will they trample?
Which player will make a name for themselves (their own name, in fact), and which will crumble under the unbearable weight of expectations?
Which commentator will piss off the most people?
Who will do a chicken wing in the grand final qualifier, helping their team win in the process, and then get suspended for the finale?
Which champion will retire on a winning note?
How many B grade players will retire on pathetic, losing notes?
Will rugby league be the winner?
And perhaps most important of all, instead of folding arms SOO-style, holding them by their side luggage-style [HT: unfortunately this link doesn't work any more, I had to take it away], clenching their hands goodwill-gesture-style, or putting them behind their backs World Cup*-style, will the eight semi-final teams' captains instead hold hands for the legendary pre-semis photo shoot?
I've got goosebumps just thinking about it, although it is quite cold at the moment. What do you think? Have your say in the comments section below.
Postum Script
I'll have to refer to the NRL Pre-Semifinals Photo Shoot handbook, but isn't it revealing that last year the trophy was placed between the Manly and Melbourne captains, and indeed closer to the eventual grand final winning captain? Stay tuned for this year's shoot.
*not a real World Cup
Who's going to win it all?
Who's going to win just a little bit of it?
Who's going to lose once?
Who will be strong enough to lose twice, a la the Roosters last year and the Dogs in 2007?
Which team will be the dark horse, and who will they trample?
Which player will make a name for themselves (their own name, in fact), and which will crumble under the unbearable weight of expectations?
Which commentator will piss off the most people?
Who will do a chicken wing in the grand final qualifier, helping their team win in the process, and then get suspended for the finale?
Which champion will retire on a winning note?
How many B grade players will retire on pathetic, losing notes?
Will rugby league be the winner?
And perhaps most important of all, instead of folding arms SOO-style, holding them by their side luggage-style [HT: unfortunately this link doesn't work any more, I had to take it away], clenching their hands goodwill-gesture-style, or putting them behind their backs World Cup*-style, will the eight semi-final teams' captains instead hold hands for the legendary pre-semis photo shoot?
I've got goosebumps just thinking about it, although it is quite cold at the moment. What do you think? Have your say in the comments section below.
Postum Script
I'll have to refer to the NRL Pre-Semifinals Photo Shoot handbook, but isn't it revealing that last year the trophy was placed between the Manly and Melbourne captains, and indeed closer to the eventual grand final winning captain? Stay tuned for this year's shoot.
*not a real World Cup
Monday, August 10, 2009
Things League can learn from Hockey I
After yesterday's league events featuring Inglis giving his famous 'don't argue' fend to his girlfriend, the league world is sure to be in turmoil for the coming weeks. Media attention will no longer be focussed on actual league, but will be focussed on those men (boys) who bring the game into disrepute. Brett Stewart will be back in the news, Matt Johns will do another tear-filled interview, and there have been rumours that even Noah Nadruku will make a return to the headlines.
League Blog will not go down this dark and haunted path, but will aim to stick to stories about issues that are at the heart of the game and fill fans and players alike with pleasure. So first off the rank - Fighting.
Anyone see that Sandow and Ennis fight in the Bulldogs v Rabbitohs match last week (yes, I know I'm a week behind)? Ennis gave Sandow a soft facial massage after Sandow kicked the ball out on the full, and Sandow responded with fists flying. Now Ennis is a bit of a grub (he was obviously much more of a grub before he joined the noble family team that is the Bulldogs), but the fact that he got penalised and Sandow didn't was an absolute disgrace... So this brings me to a new section: Things League can learn from Hockey*.
NHL Hockey has got its fighting rules worked out - despite being unwritten; all players and officials understand whether a fight is being conducted under 'the code' or not. I won't go into too much detail, but if two players want to fight - the refs just let them go, waiting until there is a natural break by which to separate them. Both players get a 5 min penalty and get sent to cool their heads. Severe penalties exist for 3rd man in, for players who continue to try to fight after being separated, and for fights where one player is hitting another player who is trying not to fight.
This code could be easily, almost naturally, transferred to League. If two players are keen to have a go, let them. Once they stop, send them both to the bin for 10min, and force the teams to use an interchange (i.e. so it's still 13 v 13). With limited interchanges coaches would quite heavily frown upon wasting one unless it was particularly warranted. Send off any player who rushes in. Send off any player who obviously picks a fight where the other player doesn't want a part (this is necessary, because otherwise you'd get someone useless, let's say Daniel Holdsworth, picking a fight with someone decent, let's say Johnathon Thurston, and both would be sent off leaving the Cowboys disadvantaged). I don't think you'd get many more fights than you do now, but the ones that you did get would be particularly good. Wouldn't you love to see Billy Slater and JT going toe to toe in the middle of the field?
Anyway, next week on Things League can learn from Hockey, I'll discuss how real men don't wear mouthguards.
* Please note, obviously I mean ice hockey, but I have a Canadian wife who tells me that there is only one form of hockey - and it's played on ice. Of course, she says, there's field hockey, which is only played by girls.
League Blog will not go down this dark and haunted path, but will aim to stick to stories about issues that are at the heart of the game and fill fans and players alike with pleasure. So first off the rank - Fighting.
Anyone see that Sandow and Ennis fight in the Bulldogs v Rabbitohs match last week (yes, I know I'm a week behind)? Ennis gave Sandow a soft facial massage after Sandow kicked the ball out on the full, and Sandow responded with fists flying. Now Ennis is a bit of a grub (he was obviously much more of a grub before he joined the noble family team that is the Bulldogs), but the fact that he got penalised and Sandow didn't was an absolute disgrace... So this brings me to a new section: Things League can learn from Hockey*.
NHL Hockey has got its fighting rules worked out - despite being unwritten; all players and officials understand whether a fight is being conducted under 'the code' or not. I won't go into too much detail, but if two players want to fight - the refs just let them go, waiting until there is a natural break by which to separate them. Both players get a 5 min penalty and get sent to cool their heads. Severe penalties exist for 3rd man in, for players who continue to try to fight after being separated, and for fights where one player is hitting another player who is trying not to fight.
This code could be easily, almost naturally, transferred to League. If two players are keen to have a go, let them. Once they stop, send them both to the bin for 10min, and force the teams to use an interchange (i.e. so it's still 13 v 13). With limited interchanges coaches would quite heavily frown upon wasting one unless it was particularly warranted. Send off any player who rushes in. Send off any player who obviously picks a fight where the other player doesn't want a part (this is necessary, because otherwise you'd get someone useless, let's say Daniel Holdsworth, picking a fight with someone decent, let's say Johnathon Thurston, and both would be sent off leaving the Cowboys disadvantaged). I don't think you'd get many more fights than you do now, but the ones that you did get would be particularly good. Wouldn't you love to see Billy Slater and JT going toe to toe in the middle of the field?
Anyway, next week on Things League can learn from Hockey, I'll discuss how real men don't wear mouthguards.
* Please note, obviously I mean ice hockey, but I have a Canadian wife who tells me that there is only one form of hockey - and it's played on ice. Of course, she says, there's field hockey, which is only played by girls.
Sunday, August 9, 2009
League Blog translations
In reference to tonight’s game against the Sharks, Broncos coach Ivan Henjak is quoted over at League HQ as saying “Two desperate teams trying to get a win and two desperate coaches trying to get a win, it makes for a good game.”
Allow me to translate.
“Two desperate teams” – we both stink
“Trying to get a win” – a game will be played
“Two desperate coaches” – if I put myself in the same group as Ricky Stuart, people mightn’t notice that he has the faded glow of a coach that once made three grand finals and won one whose team now stinks, while I am the man who introduced the words ‘once proud’ to the Broncos. Once proud, meet the Broncos. Broncos, meet once proud.
“It makes for a good game” – I did not attend the media management class on promotion of the game
Allow me to translate.
“Two desperate teams” – we both stink
“Trying to get a win” – a game will be played
“Two desperate coaches” – if I put myself in the same group as Ricky Stuart, people mightn’t notice that he has the faded glow of a coach that once made three grand finals and won one whose team now stinks, while I am the man who introduced the words ‘once proud’ to the Broncos. Once proud, meet the Broncos. Broncos, meet once proud.
“It makes for a good game” – I did not attend the media management class on promotion of the game
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Returngameology
I found myself noticing, as this glorious season unfolded, that teams that have played each other twice often seem to split the games, one win apiece. Was this intuition correct? Could it be backed up by rigorous, PhD-worthy analysis? I think you, dear readers, know that the answer to this is yes, of course. The results of my analysis on the season so far are illuminating, if taken with a pinch of salt, a dash of paprika, and a sprinkling of chilli powder.
Total return games 39
Number split 25
Number not split 13
Throw in a draw (in the return game between the eels and rabbitohs) and you get 64% of return games being won by the team that lost the first game. Not too shabby.
Looking a little further, it turns out that of the 13 double wins/losses, 10 involved the warriors, raiders, sharks or roosters. Surprise, surprise, 9 of these 10 were double losses for our poorsome foursome. If you want to omit these duds from the analysis, you get 22 games, 18 splits and one draw, or 82% being split. Even the mighty Dragons have split 3 of their 6 return games.
My take home message: a split of return games is likely, especially between non-crap teams. What else can we read into this data, and what can’t we? Trusty Steeden probably knows better than I do, for now I’ll leave it to the reader to draw their own conclusions.
Image: A split is likely
Total return games 39
Number split 25
Number not split 13
Throw in a draw (in the return game between the eels and rabbitohs) and you get 64% of return games being won by the team that lost the first game. Not too shabby.
Looking a little further, it turns out that of the 13 double wins/losses, 10 involved the warriors, raiders, sharks or roosters. Surprise, surprise, 9 of these 10 were double losses for our poorsome foursome. If you want to omit these duds from the analysis, you get 22 games, 18 splits and one draw, or 82% being split. Even the mighty Dragons have split 3 of their 6 return games.
My take home message: a split of return games is likely, especially between non-crap teams. What else can we read into this data, and what can’t we? Trusty Steeden probably knows better than I do, for now I’ll leave it to the reader to draw their own conclusions.
Image: A split is likely
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Morris Brothers Confusion
There has been something troubling me for some time now, and the worry increased during Origin III. After Ben Creagh passed the ball to Josh Morris, I’m fairly sure I heard Sterlo say “and Morris receives it from his St George team-mate”. Wait, I thought, isn’t this Josh Morris, who plays for the Bulldogs? Does he mean Josh’s twin brother, Brett Morris (playing for the Dragons), or is Sterlo astutely pointing out that Josh Morris used to play for the Dragons. Then I thought, Wait, do the Bulldogs have Brett Morris, and is Josh Morris playing currently playing for the Dragons? Then I thought, who would know, the two guys are bloody identical. How did the ‘Dogs know which one to sign? Did we get the best one? The fastest? The strongest?
It quickly brought to mind an Oscar-nominated thriller from 1995 called Naked Souls, starring Pamela Anderson. While I don’t quite remember the plot (it wasn’t really the focus of the movie), I faintly remember there being twins involved who switched places when the men were least suspecting and it confused the hell out of everyone (especially, I gathered, ol’ Pammy). Is this what the Morris brothers are doing? Are they in fact the Morris triplets and one gets a week off every couple of weeks? If so, that would be worse than injecting calves’ blood. How can we catch them at this? …
What I propose is that one of the Morris brothers gets a face tattoo akin to Mike Tyson (gold teeth optional). That’d solve it.
In other news, David Hicks got married this week. His twin brother, Mark Bosnich, was in attendance.
It quickly brought to mind an Oscar-nominated thriller from 1995 called Naked Souls, starring Pamela Anderson. While I don’t quite remember the plot (it wasn’t really the focus of the movie), I faintly remember there being twins involved who switched places when the men were least suspecting and it confused the hell out of everyone (especially, I gathered, ol’ Pammy). Is this what the Morris brothers are doing? Are they in fact the Morris triplets and one gets a week off every couple of weeks? If so, that would be worse than injecting calves’ blood. How can we catch them at this? …
What I propose is that one of the Morris brothers gets a face tattoo akin to Mike Tyson (gold teeth optional). That’d solve it.
In other news, David Hicks got married this week. His twin brother, Mark Bosnich, was in attendance.
Sentimental Favourites
With each passing year of league, each team writes another chapter in its history. Some teams' histories are so rich, so full of highs and lows, that they could be a real person, perhaps watching from the sidelines. I have no idea how a rugby league team's history would go about buying tickets to a game, nor how many seats it would take up, but that is beside the point.
Watching the Dragons play to a packed home crowd on Friday night, you could tell that their jubileetion was not limited just to their team's play this year. No, the Dragons hilarious recent run of combined making-semi finalness and non-grand final winningness was deeply implicated, if not red-handed, in those emotions.
It got me thinking, thanks to club histories, fans have both a heightened sense of the significance of seemingly regular events where their team is concerned, as well as a sense of history-making stories that extend beyond the usual parochial limits of their team. It seems to me there is a certain amount of sentimental favouritism with StGeorge this year, owing to the perfect storm of aforementioned past inglories, the addition of Zen Master Bennett, and some kind of residual goodwill for the Dragons throughout the league, on account perhaps of their glory days.*
I really hope the Dragons don't win this year.
*I hasten to add that the goodwill for the Dragons is far from first in the league. I would rate the Rabbitohs as far and away number one there, and if the Bears ever come back, they'd be number two. Imagine a grand final between those two! StGeorge would be a fair way back, then maybe Cronulla. All the rest are either two young or too recently successful to engender the same feelings. Before their merger, Tigers and Magpies would have been well up there too. As it is, I'm not sure how their 05 win would have been taken by their club history(s).
Sundae Wrap
You know, I always felt that the healthy, tasty vibe of wraps could be successfully transferred into the arena of desserts. I propose the sundae wrap: a piece of pita bread, some ice cream, a wafer, chocolate or caramel sauce, a bit of dessicated coconut, and some crumbled biscuits, all rolled up.
In other news, the weekend's league results were largely unsurprising, except for StGeorge Illawarra's shock come from behind victory over the Storm. Trusty Steeden isn't used to making mistakes, although it tells me I didn't prepare it properly so the blame lies with me. Next time, I need to invoke some kind of Egyptian god. Sounds reasonable to me, I need to check with my wife if it's ok to do that first.
In other news, the weekend's league results were largely unsurprising, except for StGeorge Illawarra's shock come from behind victory over the Storm. Trusty Steeden isn't used to making mistakes, although it tells me I didn't prepare it properly so the blame lies with me. Next time, I need to invoke some kind of Egyptian god. Sounds reasonable to me, I need to check with my wife if it's ok to do that first.
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