Love, damned love and statistics

If my readers know anything about me, it’s that I have a deep and abiding love of sports statistics. Like all good scientists, I pursue what to me seems interesting, and as soon as it get's difficult I give up.

So what do you get when you sum up the results of all current NRL teams since the comp's "inception" in 1998? Something like this:

Team	Titles	GFs	Semis	%
Brisbane	3	3	11	0.595
Melbourne	2	4	9	0.616
Sydney	1	4	8	0.557
Bulldogs	1	2	7	0.581
Manly	1	2	5	0.516
Newcastle	1	1	7	0.547
Penrith	1	1	3	0.450
Wests Tigers	1	1	1	0.419
Parramatta	0	1	8	0.554
St. George Illawarra	0	1	8	0.533
New Zealand	0	1	5	0.453
North Queensland	0	1	3	0.384
Canberra	0	0	7	0.488
Cronulla	0	0	6	0.498
South Sydney	0	0	1	0.291
Gold Coast	0	0	0	0.493
	11	22	89

I had to put the teams in some order, and after spending a few months trying to figure out how to put the Dogs first, I gave up and removed the total points docked column and ranked them first by number of grand final wins, then number of grand finals made, then number of semis made, then total winning percentage. Winning percentage shows the number of wins as a percent of all regular season games played, including this season up to last round.

I find it very revealing, the amount of rugby league history that can be crammed into a little table like this. What follows is a running commentary on things that jump out at me from this table.

Dang it, there's no way around it, the Broncos have been the best side over the last 11 years. The Storm might argue the point based on winning percentage or number of grand finals made, but you can't argue with number of titles. The Broncos' record in grand finals is pretty good too. I'd been sleeping much better at night since their mid-season form slump (once great, meet Broncos etc) but now they look like they're going to keep their amazing record of semifinal appearances in tact as well. If it's any consolation, we can all reminisce on the eight (soon to be nine) times Brisbane made the semis and utterly, humiliatingly bombed out. Moving right along...

I expected the Storm and Roosters (aka Sydney) to sit near the top, but with the laughable record of multiple grand final losses. Then I remembered the Storm's victory in 1999, which comfortably puts them in second. I was surprised to see they have the second most semis appearances, but not surprised that their winning percentage is the best. The Roosters are third largely due to their golden run from 2000-2004, which seems a distant memory now. I expect Brian Smith to take them back to the semis within three years, before taking over the rebuilding job at Cronulla after Lancen Juodo retires.

The glorious Dogs are next, edging out Manly based on number of semis made. Moving down to the bottom of this table, Gold Coast won't be there long, given their imminent semis appearance and far superior winning percentage to the Rabbitohs. And if they have a good September/October, they could shoot right up. Just look at the Tigers. I find it amazing that they've made the semis just once in 11 years (probably soon to be 12) but went all the way when they did.

Take a look at Canberra and Cronulla in comparison. Seven and six semis appearances, no grand finals. Canberra haven't even made a grand final qualifier. I might poor scorn on them, but I feel the real scorn should be reserved for Parramatta and StGeorge (based purely on first principles, but also on this table as I'll shortly explain). Eight times, they've strode confidently into the playoffs, eight times they've left empty handed. Only one grand final, which they each lost as favourites. Here's hoping it's not a StGeorge-Parra grand final this year.

Finally, the observant may notice that we're one semi final appearance short. Number 90 comes from none other than the Bears (RIP), back in 1998. They were reincarnated as Northern Eagles, but lucky for them and Manly their record isn't included in this table.