Returngameology

I found myself noticing, as this glorious season unfolded, that teams that have played each other twice often seem to split the games, one win apiece. Was this intuition correct? Could it be backed up by rigorous, PhD-worthy analysis? I think you, dear readers, know that the answer to this is yes, of course. The results of my analysis on the season so far are illuminating, if taken with a pinch of salt, a dash of paprika, and a sprinkling of chilli powder.

Total return games 39
Number split 25
Number not split 13

Throw in a draw (in the return game between the eels and rabbitohs) and you get 64% of return games being won by the team that lost the first game. Not too shabby.

Looking a little further, it turns out that of the 13 double wins/losses, 10 involved the warriors, raiders, sharks or roosters. Surprise, surprise, 9 of these 10 were double losses for our poorsome foursome. If you want to omit these duds from the analysis, you get 22 games, 18 splits and one draw, or 82% being split. Even the mighty Dragons have split 3 of their 6 return games.

My take home message: a split of return games is likely, especially between non-crap teams. What else can we read into this data, and what can’t we? Trusty Steeden probably knows better than I do, for now I’ll leave it to the reader to draw their own conclusions.











Image: A split is likely