Dog Days

What it's like to be a Dogs fan

LB is not ashamed to admit that we agree with the common perception that the Dogs are the greatest club in the history of rugby league. But something disturbing has happened in recent years. Something that threatens to, nay that has already begun to rub some of the shine off a beautiful and thick, lustrous coat of classiness that has accreted through almost three decades of the Winfield Cup.

From the late 70s, through to the early 2000s, the Dogs were the classic perineal contenders. They may have missed the semis a few times, but they won a stack of comps and excelled for extended periods of time. Nadirs were brief, ascensions lasting. It meant something to speak of the Dogs' proud and winning culture (on the field).

Now? All that has changed (on the field).

Let's take a look at their record since their famous grand final victory in 2004. This is also a decent marker for a transition between eras (the end of Dogs and Roosters dominance, the start of the Storm and Sea Eagles rise. Incidentally, are we on the cusp of a new era?).

2005: Never got going, threatened to make a run for the semis at the end of the year but died in the arse (interestingly the same fate befell the team after the previous premiership in 1995).

2006: Very strong year, ended by the horrific Broken Axle defeat to Brisbane in the GF qualifier.

2007: Constantly threatened to fade out or climb the ladder, finished middle of the top eight, season ended with three straight defeats, including two playoff losses.

2008: Wooden spoon.

2009: Surpassed all expectations, a legal interchange away from the minor premiership, went out in the GF qualifier giving their best to a superior Parra team.

2010: Struggled to get going, threatened to make a run at the playoffs, died in the arse (or so LB is predicting).

The Nostradmii among you might point to this as reason to predict a) a resurgence in 2011 or b) a sharp spike in the price of pork bellies next September. But LB has another point to make.

The Dogs have no form carryover from year to year.

This is a terrible fate to befall a franchise, although considering all the other crap that's happened around the league it's not so bad I suppose. Anyway, what of the other teams over this same stretch?

Average performance over this time period, measured in ladder position, sees the Storm clearly on top, followed by Manly and the Broncos - three teams that have made the semis each year and will do so again this year, massive salary cap breach penalties aside. The Dogs rank sixth.

A high (or low) average ladder position tells you something about form carryover, but not a lot. What about our old friend standard deviation, a measure of the how far a team's ladder position strays from its long term average?

The most consistent team is now the Broncos, followed by the Panthers (consistently shite and the jury still out this year), Storm and Manly. The Tigers are next up, models of consistency in just missing the eight. The Dogs rank?

Dead last. And by a fair bit too. Other teams with a massive spread are the Cowboys, Knights and Sharks.

You get similar results if you take the difference operator - this tells you how much each year varies from the last. Since 2005, the Storm, Broncos, Manly and Panthers have never moved more than five spots on the ladder in one year. Manly's never moved more than three spots. That is the magic of Desce.

The Dogs, meanwhile, are dead last on this measure too, having moved 10 spots twice and 14 once. This year is shaping up as a move of 10 or more spots.

LB is struggling to think of an appropriate metaphor to describe the Dogs on again, off again culture. The Canterbury Lightswitches? The Binaries? The Jude Law-Sienna Millers?

LB has submitted this study to the prestigious journal Nature Rugby League and is awaiting comments from reviewers.

Midseason Report Card

League Blog: A+

The first half of Origin II was a dour affair, and these are my least favourite types of affairs. The Blues must be frank and admit they are in a demolishing phase. Next comes rebuilding, and finally glorious victory, or perhaps demolishing again. All depends on ARU and AFL recruitment plans really. My bolter for next Blues coach is Mal Meninga. With the right incentive package he could be ours, but we'd want to make sure we get his support team too.

The second half was rather muted, literally. Instead I watched the final two episodes of series three of Six Feet Under and let me tell you, it's not half bad. It was a real struggle watching Nate through this series. Where once was spark and life, now lay dullness, depression and resignation. I really hope he gets some closure after confirmation of the awful news of Lisa's death.

I'm not sure what to make of Ruth's marriage, but I'll be honest and say the guy playing him hasn't won me over yet. You know, the tall guy who played a baddie in LA Confidential? Claire has become less likeable, her boyfriend was really irritating. I do feel for her though after all she's gone through. It's still jarring for me to see Dexter as David, whining to Keith all the time.

It just makes me hunger for season four of Dexter even more. I have above average height hopes for season four of Six Feet Under. Better go and reserve it at Civic.


Getting back to League, now's as good a time as any for some predictions.
- Bulldogs to go on a three game winning streak when it's too late, followed immediately by Kevin Moore's contract being extended by two years to 2014.
- Penrith to prove they're the real deal, whatever that means. They definitely won't make the grand final.
- Tigers to narrowly make the top eight, sending a wave of panic through the NRL and confusion through the sister cities of Leichhardt and Campbelltown.
- Brian Smith to sign as Sharks coach as soon as whoever they sign next gets fired. I mean really, anyone can pick the Knights and Roosters off the canvas. Let's see him do something with the Sharks. Actually, scratch that, Brian Smith to sign as head coach of the North Sydney Bears.
- Some awesome new controversies to break out
- Everyone to forget about the Independent Commission
- LB to try and catch a game or two if we must

The Goodyear Blip

League Blog was lucky enough to obtain tickets for last night’s blockbuster match at Penrith. The seats were excellent, right at halfway and at the perfect elevation. It later turned out that we weren’t supposed to be sitting there, but really, that’s what footy’s all about.

It wasn’t a very good game, but LB was happy to see up close how these teams are travelling.

Ever since their blip of a grand final win in 2003, the Panthers have deserved the heap of scorn that’s been poured all over them and especially their inexplicably employed coach. Unlike the Tigers, who at various points of the season look like premiership contenders before missing the semis, the Panthers have at various times looked like a playoff team before missing the semis. This year, things are different. Or so they say.

Based on last night’s performance, they’re definitely in with a shot. Players seem to know their roles, they’re confident and have some good strike power. But their defence is shoddy and you’ll forgive League Blog for saying they are locks not to make the grand final or even the grand final qualifier.

The Dogs are continuing their rebuilding quite nicely, in the wake of last year’s overachieving blip. Ben Barba got his first run of 80 minutes and was quiet but solid. Flawed defensively, but very involved in the Dogs’ attack. I think he erred on the side of simplicity and not pushing things, aside from an audacious chip kick on the last tackle 30m out from his line, which lead to a decisive Panthers try from memory. He and the Dogs will be much better for the run. They continue to find ways to ignore Josh Morris and I’m starting to think he needs to take some responsibility for that. For a player with his ability on a team like the Dogs, his lack of involvement is shameful.

Overall the Dogs look like a team without an identity. They have some outstanding players but aren't putting it together convincingly. I rank development of their up and comers as the critical task at the moment. With the team they have, they still shouldn’t have to sacrifice a finals berth to achieve that end.

I don’t think the ladder position of either of these teams will remain as it is. In fact, this is the most variable comp in the history of rugby league. Teams drift in and out of form – winners don’t win for long and even the losingest losers have picked up a few wins. This is heartening for teams aiming to win enough games to stay in contention but happy to work combinations and structure with the goal of peaking at the right time of year. Teams like Melbourne (but not actually Melbourne). Wouldn't it be delightful if at the end of the year the non-Melbourne bottom team was only four wins behind the team with the most wins (probably Melbourne)?

Two side notes from last night. The Panthers' on-ground announcer looks like he used to be on children's TV. And for the first time in seven years, Luke Patten is no longer the fifth-best fullback in rugby league.

Tahu's round the clock rehab program

League Blog is pleased to announce our return to League Blog after an extended stay in one of Sydney's southern National Parks. We can't say too much about it, as we're selling our story to New Idea. Let's just say we won't be offering directions to Trent Barrett for a while. If he wants to find first grade form, he can make his own damn way.

As it turns out we're coming back at just the right time. Not only does Origin I promise to be the greatest game so far in the history of rugby league, but Ben Barba's finally getting his chance to steer the Dogs around the park on Monday against the Panthers. With regards to the former, LB is especially interested to see whether Mal Meninga's finally forked out for a better wheelchair for Darren Lockyer. It's a disgrace that they've left him in that nursing home giveaway for so long. With regards to the latter, the Dogs are on track to continue their long rebuilding phase after the blip of overachievement last year. Give the youth a chance, Kevvie.

Finally, LB was very interested to hear of Timana Tahu's safe passage into the Origin team. We've managed to get a copy of his round the clock rehab program.

Day 1
0600 Breakfast. Two slices of raisin toast and a large mug of earl grey tea. Third slice of raisin toast if still hungry.

0630 Turn on ABC Newsradio, plug in muscle stimulator and strap it to knee and ankle.

1230 Lunch. As extension cord is not long enough to reach kitchen, give Jamal Idris a call and see if he can bring over something.

1830 Dinner. Try Jamal again. If no luck, try trainer Tony Ayoub.

2030 Unstrap muscle stimulator from knee and ankle, unplug muscle stimulator, turn off radio.

2100 Do some straight line running and some turning up and back over ten metres.

2200 Go to bed.

Day 2
0630 Give Tony Ayoub a call, ask if he can supply a portable muscle stimulator.

Storm in a Teacup

In one of the momentous days in the history of Rugby League, League Blog was shocked to find out that the Newcastle Knights are chasing Brett Finch to fill the role of five eight in 2011. An amazing and noteworthy revelation - we think this may be the story of the year.

A gift from God

It’s 6 degrees in the outer Canberra suburb of Belconnen, and the sun is yet to rise. A lone figure strolls down the road towards a local park, football in one hand and four litre water bottle in the other. He enters the park, neatly places the ball and water by a tree and immediately starts running. An hour later, the rising sun sees him dodging and weaving between imaginary witch hats. Another hour and the suburb comes to life, cars starting, people walking, the muted greens and browns of Canberra seeing the light of day.

Our solitary athlete pays none of this heed, not for another half hour when he picks up his ball and now empty water bottle and leaves the park. He is covered in sweat and has the look of soldier returning from war. Grim, dazed, and battle hardened.

Canberra Raiders interchange player Brett Kelly is a polarising figure. “Some people have heard of me, some haven’t,” he quips. But he wouldn’t have it any other way. Nothing has come easy to Kelly in life. Not his first word (bobo, according to his mother), not his first job (kitchenhand at Hungry Jacks), and not a starting berth in the National Rugby League. The way he sees it, if he didn’t get up early and work harder than everyone else, he wouldn’t even be on the same page as the Thurstons, Inglises and Barbas of the world. “It’s definitely made me stronger,” Kelly says of his brutal training regime.

Injuries have derailed most of Kelly’s career, but he is starting to come good at the right time. Kelly finds himself at the end of a five man bench for the Raiders, coming off a surprise win over the slow starting Eels. Among the boys, Kelly’s nickname is Omitted, because of how often the phrase ‘one to be omitted’ comes after his name. He doesn’t mind. He has far worse nicknames for the other players, particular Alan Tongue, Dane Tilse and Joe Picker.

“I’ve put in the hard work, the long hours. It’s just a matter of replicating that on the footy field. It’s not rocket science,” Kelly says. Raiders conditioner Mark Colville has a big wrap on Kelly. “Mate, this c*** is eight, nine years older than most of the other c**** in this place, but he f******* trains the house down. This c*** is legit, he is a f****** NRL player.”

Kelly keeps to himself

As one of the older players in the club, I wonder if Kelly has any perspective on why the Raiders have been such a colossal failure in the NRL for so many years. Is it the coach, the players, the town? Does the salary cap work? Kelly says nothing, not even an ‘I don’t know.’ I’m not even sure he understood the question. But if last week’s win over the Eels is anything to go by, this year’s players carry no extra burden from years past.

No more than your average human anyway. Kelly understands the religious connotations of the suburb he was born in. “Jesus, every second person in my street used to bang on about living in the garden of Eden. Yes, I’ve got a mate called Adam. Yes, I know someone called Eve. And no, there's no apple orchards around here.” Kelly grows quiet for a moment. After a long pause, during which he appears to see through my very soul, he continues. “Knowledge is an awful burden to place on anyone. There’s too much. How do you make sense of it, act on it? But that’s the human condition. We are by nature curious creatures. Would you have refrained from eating the apple?”

I don’t know the answer to this question. But I do know that Brett Kelly is unlike any other player in the history of rugby league.

Sponsored by Betstar

Punters,

I noticed something today that reminded me of that Dudley Moore/Darryl Hannah movie Crazy People, where an advertiser started using honesty to sell his products.

It seems that Betstar is doing the same thing. Note their statement on my Oztips page today.



I like it. Makes me want to head straight to the Pokies.

In other news, yes, Storm to beat the Sea Eagles.