NRL Finals Preview

It's been one of the most exciting finishes to a year in ages, thanks to the fluctuating fortunes of top teams and the race for the top eight being wide open well into the last few rounds. Perversely, the total interest and excitement factor can only go down from here - in fact it arguably peaked just before the Tigers and Cowboys were knocked out.

My reasoning is that a big part of the fascination is the number of potential outcomes - simple high school permutations and combinations. As we move forward and more teams are knocked out, less surprises are possible. Obviously this culminates after the grand final, when the last team is knocked out and it's pretty much guaranteed who won - interest drops massively for six months or so after that.

Having said that, we could be looking at the greatest semi-finals in the history of rugby league, should the Dogs win it all.

Here's how League Blog sees the finals shaking out. Obviously we needn't put our reputations on the line by forecasting every single game from here on in, but we're doing it anyway, on the assumption that no one will remember if we're wrong.

Week 1
Dragons and Dogs win, getting the week off. One of those games will be close, the other will be a blowout. The other two games will be tense, see-sawing battles, but I see the Broncs' experience getting them past a slightly nervous Titans in a tight one, and the Sea Eagles edging the Storm in a close but boring game. I hate to agree with Gus but he might be right when he says these two know each other too well for a free flowing and exciting game to eventuate.

Although under an injury cloud, look
for a see-saw to take the field in Week 1

Week 2
Week 1 partners swap, with Sea Eagles playing the Titans and the Broncos playing the Storm. Broncos-Storm should be a cracker, I think these two sides hate each other pretty bad. If only the Zen Master was still coaching in Brisbane, there'd be even more spite. I think the Storm will get up in a tough, merry-go-rounding affair, despite a desperate K Hunt drop punt from 50m out at the siren.

Sea Eagles-Titans should also be good. Titans will bounce back and lay it all on the line, but the Sea Eagles will be finding their groove and should match them. I see the Sea Eagles getting through in a very tight one - possible golden, or at least silver point extra time.

Will the Sea Eagles and Titans be shopping here?

Week 3
My final four is Dragons, Storm, Dogs and Sea Eagles. I think the Storm are a big chance, but will tip the Dragons to buck history and not choke at the penultimate stage.Let's say 10 point winners in a slippery-dipping contest, with Inglis to disappear at crucial moments, including during the game. I'm not sure which Dragons player will be suspended for the grand final, but I'll go with one of their second rowers - let's say Creagh.

Could a suspension be in the air?

A brief interlude on tipping before I get into the Dogs-Sea Eagles game. I've slowly come round to the rule that you never tip against your team. It makes watching games awkward, plus the Dogs have won every time we've tipped against them this year. I am going to bust out of this for the GF qualifier though, and tip the Sea Eagles. It pains me greatly to say that - hang on, I've just inhaled some nitrous oxide, it's okay I can't feel anything now. I get the feeling the Dogs just aren't quite up to making the grand final this year. I can't quite explain why. They've probably suffered the smallest form slump out of any team (I suppose that is still open at the moment), and have shown the ability to win games despite giving opponents a head start (see Cowboys, Souths games). But they just haven't quite convinced me they're premiership material. Which obviously is their number one task, above preparing for their game against the Knights. Sea Eagles to win by 7.

One of many sad bulldog pictures
available at Google images

Week 4
What a grand final! What match-ups! Zen Master versus Hindu Ascetic. Soward vs Foran. Young vs Ballin. Although I hate both teams, it will be good to watch just knowing that one of them will suffer horribly by the end of this game. If Manly lose, that's two losses from three grand finals and surely a hop skip and jump from coming last next year. If the Dragons lose, they add to their impressive record of choking, and Wayne Bennett loses his grand final mojo. I think the Dragons will lose, badly. Not as badly as last year mind you. Manly to win 39 nil.

Happy Father's Day dad - I tipped Manly