What it's like to be a Dogs fanLB is not ashamed to admit that we agree with the common perception that the Dogs are the greatest club in the history of rugby league. But something disturbing has happened in recent years. Something that threatens to, nay that has already begun to rub some of the shine off a beautiful and thick, lustrous coat of classiness that has accreted through almost three decades of the Winfield Cup.
From the late 70s, through to the early 2000s, the Dogs were the classic perineal contenders. They may have missed the semis a few times, but they won a stack of comps and excelled for extended periods of time. Nadirs were brief, ascensions lasting. It meant something to speak of the Dogs' proud and winning culture (on the field).
Now? All that has changed (on the field).
Let's take a look at their record since their famous grand final victory in 2004. This is also a decent marker for a transition between eras (the end of Dogs and Roosters dominance, the start of the Storm and Sea Eagles rise. Incidentally, are we on the cusp of a new era?).
2005: Never got going, threatened to make a run for the semis at the end of the year but died in the arse (interestingly the same fate befell the team after the previous premiership in 1995).
2006: Very strong year, ended by the horrific Broken Axle defeat to Brisbane in the GF qualifier.
2007: Constantly threatened to fade out or climb the ladder, finished middle of the top eight, season ended with three straight defeats, including two playoff losses.
2008: Wooden spoon.
2009: Surpassed all expectations, a legal interchange away from the minor premiership, went out in the GF qualifier giving their best to a superior Parra team.
2010: Struggled to get going, threatened to make a run at the playoffs, died in the arse (or so LB is predicting).
The Nostradmii among you might point to this as reason to predict a) a resurgence in 2011 or b) a sharp spike in the price of pork bellies next September. But LB has another point to make.
The Dogs have no form carryover from year to year.
This is a terrible fate to befall a franchise, although considering all the other crap that's happened around the league it's not so bad I suppose. Anyway, what of the other teams over this same stretch?
Average performance over this time period, measured in ladder position, sees the Storm clearly on top, followed by Manly and the Broncos - three teams that have made the semis each year and will do so again this year, massive salary cap breach penalties aside. The Dogs rank sixth.
A high (or low) average ladder position tells you something about form carryover, but not a lot. What about our old friend standard deviation, a measure of the how far a team's ladder position strays from its long term average?
The most consistent team is now the Broncos, followed by the Panthers (consistently shite and the jury still out this year), Storm and Manly. The Tigers are next up, models of consistency in just missing the eight. The Dogs rank?
Dead last. And by a fair bit too. Other teams with a massive spread are the Cowboys, Knights and Sharks.
You get similar results if you take the difference operator - this tells you how much each year varies from the last. Since 2005, the Storm, Broncos, Manly and Panthers have never moved more than five spots on the ladder in one year. Manly's never moved more than three spots. That is the magic of Desce.
The Dogs, meanwhile, are dead last on this measure too, having moved 10 spots twice and 14 once. This year is shaping up as a move of 10 or more spots.
LB is struggling to think of an appropriate metaphor to describe the Dogs on again, off again culture. The Canterbury Lightswitches? The Binaries? The Jude Law-Sienna Millers?
LB has submitted this study to the prestigious journal Nature Rugby League and is awaiting comments from reviewers.
